Am I really suggesting that the estimates of eight jurors -- among whom two professional judges -- who heard the case for a year, along with something like 60% of the Italian public and probably half the Internet (and a significantly larger fraction of the non-American Internet), could be off by a minimum of three orders of magnitude (probably significantly more)? That most other people (including most commenters on my last post) are off by no fewer than two?

Your assertion of such a high probability of guilt does not constitute a claim that most other commenters on your last post were off by no fewer than two orders of magnitude. Probability is subjectively objective. There is one correct estimate for you to have given what you know but this is not the same one that others should have. In fact, given that on average the commenters care less about the subject so did less research if they arrived at the same confidence as you then one of you would probably have to be wrong.

The commenters whose estimates were closest to mine -- and, therefore, to the correct answer, in my view -- were Daniel Burfoot and jenmarie. Congratulations to them. (But even they were off by a factor of at least ten!)

The task isn't to guess your password. The task is to assign probability estimates about the state of their timeline of universe. Their universe does not include the state 'it is <some completely arbitrary high probability> probable that Amanda is innocent'.

ETA: I totally agree with your main contentions and found your post both insightful and extremely well written. It is rare to see such well reasoned essays from people who are emotionally entangled with the topic.