Warrigal comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 13 December 2009 05:26:48AM 5 points [-]

How did Less Wrong do by comparison? The average estimated probability of Amanda Knox's guilt was 0.35 (thanks to Yvain for doing the calculation).

Yvain! How could you? What did the probabilities do to deserve that kind of abuse? (I strongly assert that averaging the probabilities is not a good way to combine such estimates.)

Comment author: [deleted] 13 December 2009 06:27:28AM 2 points [-]

I wonder what implications this has for the method of choosing priors I came up with that is "ask everybody in the world what they think the priors should be, normalize the invalid ones, and take the average of all of them".