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ciphergoth comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong
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Yvain! How could you? What did the probabilities do to deserve that kind of abuse? (I strongly assert that averaging the probabilities is not a good way to combine such estimates.)
What would the right thing look like? Averaging the log-odds ratio?
That's what I would do. If one person is almost certain (say 1/(10^10^10)) then the strength of their view would be represented. Of course if anyone gives an irrationally low or high answer, or puts <=0 or >=1, then it overweights their views/blows up.