Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Correct Contrarian Cluster - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 December 2009 10:01PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 21 December 2009 11:46:56PM *  0 points [-]

Fishy endeavor anyway - smells like determining truth by popular vote spiced up with nifty math.

"Determining truth" has connotations with "certainty", which is at odds with the fact that evidence here is assumed to be weak -- something to prime attention, not imprint opinions.

(But I agree that the idea of getting any kind of useful conclusions/info from such a poll doesn't seem realistic.)

Edit: after reformulating the method, I changed my mind.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 December 2009 11:52:33PM 0 points [-]

Conclusions, no, but it sure might print out a fascinating list of things to investigate.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 21 December 2009 11:57:50PM 0 points [-]

I expect that all "things to investigate" you'd find would've already been on the radar.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 22 December 2009 12:24:57AM 1 point [-]

I don't, especially if you let respondents suggest additional items and incorporated them. The CCC is large and includes things like (probably) the Shangri-La Diet.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 22 December 2009 12:54:08AM *  1 point [-]

Then the gain is not in turning attention to things considered wrong, but more to things that weren't considered at all. High-quality memetic availability pool allowing to not waste time on false positives. Again, too dramatic an effect to get from a poll, and it's unclear to what area should the finds be tuned. I'm not at all interested in know that cold fusion is real if counterfactually it is.