Peter_de_Blanc comments on The 9/11 Meta-Truther Conspiracy Theory - Less Wrong
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Comments (178)
I don't have my copy of PT:LOS right here, but this doesn't sound right to me. I would think that your prior probability for the reports being mistaken is greater than your prior for ESP. The reports provide strong evidence for a mistake, and even stronger evidence for ESP, but not strong enough to make ESP look more probable than a mistake.