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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Two Truths and a Lie - Less Wrong
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It's an interesting experiment, and probably a good teaching exercise under controlled conditions to teach people about falsificationism, but real theories are too complex and theories about human behavior are way too complex.
Take the "slam dunk" theory of evolution. If "Some people and animals are homosexual" was in there, I'd pick that as the lie without even looking at the other two (well, if I didn't already know). There are some okay explanations of how homosexuality might fit into evolution, but they're not the sort of thing most people would start thinking about unless they already knew homosexuality existed.
(Another example: plate tectonics and "Hawaii, right smack in the middle of a huge plate, is full of volcanoes".)
A rationalist ends up being wrong sometimes, and can only hope for well-calibrated probabilities. I think that, in the absence of observation, this is the sort of prediction that most human-level intelligences would end up getting wrong, and I wouldn't necessarily assume they were making any errors of rationality in doing so, but rather hitting the 1 out of 20 occasions when a 5% probability occurs.