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saturn comments on On the Power of Intelligence and Rationality - Less Wrong
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How many highly rational people do you suppose there are in the world? How many of them do you suspect are risk-seeking enough to aim for the type of swing-for-the-fences success that would make them notable?
If your respective answers aren't "quite a lot" and "a significant fraction" then it seems like you're neglecting the base rate. Otherwise, I'd like to know how you arrived at those estimates.
"How many highly rational people do you suppose there are in the world? How many of them do you suspect are risk-seeking enough to aim for the type of swing-for-the-fences success that would make them notable?"
Precisely half of the human population has above average rationality. What's notable about people like the Nazis is not that they weren't x-rationalists, it's that they were well below average.