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Torben comments on On the Power of Intelligence and Rationality - Less Wrong
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...and you can draw a pretty direct line from the part where Hitler was insane to Nazi military defeats, so if you zoom in up close I'm not sure it supports the main thesis.
Like not going for the Middle East, but focusing on Russia. I had grown used to the idea that Allied victory was pretty much ensured, at least by the entry of the US into the war. Reading about how Hitler's generals really, really wanted him to go through Egypt to the oil was unsettling.