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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Mystery of the Haunted Rationalist - Less Wrong
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I did a similar experiment on myself when I went on an organized trip to Israel. When we stopped at the Whaling (Western) Wall, I decided to test out my rationality. As you know, you're suppose to write down a wish on a piece of paper and put it in the wall i.e. another way of praying. I decided to write down "I wish my family would die in 2 weeks," and put it in the wall to see if I can do it.
To my surprise, I did feel a bit weird, a little anxious, but after a while I was fine. It is hard to overcome the emotions induced by our biases, but can be done with practice.
Just curious, would anyone not write the note (that I wrote)? Assuming you'd be compensated for your effort to write it and put it in the wall.
Bravo! This would be a good rite of passage for aspiring rationalists, which could also be carried out with a wishing well.
Magical thinking really can make some people worried and contribute an extra jot of misery. This seems like it should help.
But you really should write down "I wish I would die in 2 weeks", because if, you know, everyone does this, sooner or later someone's family is going to die in 2 weeks.
Perhaps the wish should be "I wish to no longer be a rationalist." If the wishing well is the real deal, and it comes true, then it is clearly not desirable to be a rationalist, which makes the wish a genuine one. If you remain a rationalist, you have proved that the wishing well does not work. A win-win situation!
Not so. If the wall works, then being a rationalist will allow you to correctly interpret the evidence of that fact, while irrationality might cause you to ignore the evidence and incorrectly conclude that the wall has no effect.
A better wish might be "I wish to believe that this wall grants wishes." If the wish is granted, then you will believe truth; and if it is not granted, then you will also believe truth.
Something other than the wall could grant your wish to believe that the wall grants wishes, and then you would believe a falsehood. (Unless the wall grants wishes, too, but ignored yours in particular for some reason. But that's a Gettier case.)
p(wishgranted|~wallgrants) is negligible, I think. Still, I suppose you could just recite the entire Litany of Tarski.
What is p(wish is answered by Murphy the mad god of irony)?
You can neither speak truth nor lie to a rock.