That scarcely seems to be a testable prediction. Random, political, and technological events are tightly interwoven, first of all. Unless you plan to perform an experiment or do some kind of remarkably complex and research dense correlational analysis, how do you expect to determine whether you were right or wrong? For instance, if a government sponsored project produces a type of cheap, practical fusion, is that tech change or a political change? Are terrorist attacks random or political? In any case, I would guess that if you did a survey, people would more often say that technological change was more important.

There's no separation to be had between politics and technology. The biggest influence on technology is regulation which outlaws, restricts, or places huge financial barriers to entry (as with medical research); another non-trivial influence is politically controlled financing of R&D. And arguably, the biggest influence on politics that isn't itself political is technology (case in point: modern communications, computer, and the Internet spreading censored information, creating more popular awareness and coordinating protests.) So I think political and technological events are inseparable over almost any timescale.