timtyler comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong
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My first prediction is that as is usually the case, political and random events will change the way people live far more over the next year than technology will. Given the current state of the financial system, I would place about even odds on politics having more impact than technology over the next decade, but with the caveat that over such a long time scale political and technological events will surely be interwoven.
It seems pretty vague - do you have any ideas about how this should be measured?