RolfAndreassen comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: mattnewport 31 December 2009 01:21:29PM 6 points [-]

Next Year

  • Holiday retail sales will be below consensus forecasts leading to some market turmoil in the early part of the year as the 'recovery' starts to look shaky (70%).
  • A developed country will suffer a currency crisis - most likely either the UK, US or one of the weaker Eurozone economies (60%).
  • A new round of bank failures and financial turmoil as the wave of Option ARM mortgage resets starts to hit and commercial real estate collapses including at least one major bank failure (a 'too big to fail' bank) (75%).
  • A major terrorist attack in the US (50%) most likely with a connection to Pakistan. The response will be disproportionate to the magnitude of the attack (99%).
  • Apple will launch a tablet and will aim to do for print media what it has done for music (80%).
  • Democrats will lose seats in Congress and the Senate in the elections but Republicans will not gain control of either house (70%).
  • One or more developed countries will see significant civil unrest due to ongoing problems with the economy (50%).

Next Decade

  • US will undergo a severe currency crisis (more likely) or sovereign default (less likely) (75%).
  • Developed countries' welfare states will begin to collapse (state retirement and unemployment benefits and health care will be severely curtailed or eliminated in more than one developed country) (75%).
  • UK will undergo a severe currency crisis or sovereign default (90%).
  • One or more countries will drop out of the Euro or the entire system will collapse (75%).
  • A US state will secede (30%).
Comment author: RolfAndreassen 31 December 2009 08:43:28PM 9 points [-]
  • A US state will secede (30%).

I will take a bet on this, if you like. Also, did you perhaps mean "attempt to secede", or are you predicting actual success? I'll take the bet either way.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 05 January 2010 05:50:51AM 1 point [-]

You'll have to define what constitutes an attempt.

Comment author: LucasSloan 05 January 2010 06:25:15AM 1 point [-]

Perhaps a vote goes through the state legislature in favor of secession?

Comment author: mattnewport 06 January 2010 07:35:21AM 0 points [-]

On further reflection I think I need to revise my estimate down somewhat. Thinking on it further my 30% estimate is conditional on general trends that I think are more likely than not to occur but I did not correctly incorporate them into the estimate for secession. I think 10-15% is probably a better estimate taking that into account.

I think the political pressure for secession will stem from an extended period of economic weakness in the US and widespread fiscal crises in states like California and New York. If, as seems likely, federal aid is seen to go disproportionately to certain states that have the most troubled finances then the states that feel they are losing out will begin to see secession as an attractive option. My original estimate did not sufficiently account for the possibility that I am wrong about the economic troubles ahead however.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 06 January 2010 11:18:10PM 0 points [-]

I would still be willing to take a bet at these odds, given some reasonably clear-cut definition of "attempt to secede".

Comment author: mattnewport 06 January 2010 11:40:47PM 1 point [-]

I think we could probably hammer out a mutually agreeable definition but the decade time frame for a pay out makes a bet on this impractical I feel. I'm reasonably comfortable making a bet to be settled next January but a bet to be settled in 2020 doesn't seem practical through an agreement on a forum.

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