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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong
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Comments (426)
You have no way of knowing that he's pulling them out of his ass. And even if he is, I think it's appropriate for this thread. There are dozens of equally unjustified predictions below that you didn't jump on. WTF?
I looked through this thread and didn't see anything equally unjustified. The only prediction that came close was the one about a US state seceding, and that was by a user who was willing to make bets on their other predictions. This is just good-old-fashioned "Hey Rocky, watch me pull an amazing prediction out of my hat!"
I agree, but I do think that given your status in the community maybe it behooves you to be nicer if at all possible.
Strongly agree.
(I think what happened here was that Eliezer was particularly annoyed at this prediction, since it's the sort of thing that gives his field a bad name.)
Down that road lies madness. I'm not Gandalf.
While the estimate does seem crazy, no-one's actually offered Thomas a bet, and mattnewport didn't offer to bet; Thomas has, thus far, done what mattnewport did, except he didn't offer realistic bets.
If you're going to do a bit of policing of LW, you ought to either address your comment to him and offer him advice to improve, or else block him: if his comments are unerringly useless, you shouldn't be warning the flock about the wolf but removing him.
Upvoted for the reference, which I got.