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MichaelVassar comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong
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Comments (426)
I looked through this thread and didn't see anything equally unjustified. The only prediction that came close was the one about a US state seceding, and that was by a user who was willing to make bets on their other predictions. This is just good-old-fashioned "Hey Rocky, watch me pull an amazing prediction out of my hat!"
I agree, but I do think that given your status in the community maybe it behooves you to be nicer if at all possible.
Strongly agree.
(I think what happened here was that Eliezer was particularly annoyed at this prediction, since it's the sort of thing that gives his field a bad name.)
Down that road lies madness. I'm not Gandalf.