I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.
Well under 30% certainly, but I wouldn't give it under 4%. A decade is long and the US is young.
I think a draft is much more likely.
I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.