MichaelVassar comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: MichaelVassar 31 December 2009 07:15:24PM 0 points [-]

Great example of what I'm talking about. I'd challenge you on most of those actually, if there was a convenient and well structured betting forum, but none of them seem crazy to me.

Comment author: komponisto 31 December 2009 07:53:34PM 3 points [-]

none of them seem crazy to me

A US state will secede (30%)

None of the others do, but this one seems ludicrous to me.

Comment author: MichaelVassar 31 December 2009 10:05:08PM 1 point [-]

Well under 30% certainly, but I wouldn't give it under 4%. A decade is long and the US is young.

Comment author: komponisto 31 December 2009 10:27:06PM 0 points [-]

I think a draft is much more likely.

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