New Year's Predictions Thread

MichaelVassar

I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.

My bet with Eliezer can be found at http://lesswrong.com/lw/wm/disjunctions_antipredictions_etc/.

I said there at the time, "As for what constitutes the AI, since we don't have any measure of superhuman intelligence, it seems to me sufficient that it be clearly more intelligent than any human being." Everyone's agreement that it is clearly more intelligent would be the "objective" standard.

In any case, I am risk averse, so I don't really want to bet on the next decade, which according to my prediction would give me a 90% chance of losing the bet. The bet with Eliezer was indefinite, since I already paid; I am simply counting on it happening within our lifetimes.

Would a sped-up upload count as super-intelligent in your opinion?

2dfranke16y

I like your side of the original bet because I think the probability that the first superintelligent AI will be only slightly smarter than humans, non-goal-driven, and non-self-improving, and therefore non-Singularity-inducing, is better than 1%. The reason I'm willing to bet against you on the above version is that I think 10% is way overconfident for a 10-year timeframe.

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