ciphergoth comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: James_Miller 01 January 2010 05:34:47PM 6 points [-]

Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence- 75%.

Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence- 15%.

Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs. – 40%

All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influence many peoples' voting decisions - 70%

While president, Obama will announce support for a VAT tax - 70%.

While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security - 70%

Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year - 20%.

Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel – 30%

Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout - 80%

Comment author: ciphergoth 01 January 2010 08:55:28PM *  6 points [-]

All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influence many peoples' voting decisions - 70%

Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel – 30%

Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout - 80%

I'd take the other side on any of these if we can find a way to make it precise.