The article you were linked to explains exactly what you're getting wrong. i looked it up to give it to you before I saw that Unknowns already had. It is a waste of everyone's time to repeat the the argument the article makes in are own words. It is extremely short. If you can't be bothered to read it then everyone is going to assume that you aren't arguing in good faith. They would be right to do so.
I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.