taw comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: taw 02 January 2010 11:36:25PM 5 points [-]

I would take you on most of your predictions on even odds. I'd gladly on 50% odds bet that:

  • No collapse of German government in 2010
  • No ban on motorcycles in London in 2010
  • No Congestion zone enlargement in 2010
  • Chinese economy in 2020 is more prosperous than in 2009
  • Chinese industrial production in 2020 larger than in 2009
  • Non-agricultural employment in China in 2020 larger than in 2009
Comment author: taw 02 January 2011 12:24:45PM 0 points [-]

I was right on all of these:

  • No collapse of German government in 2010
  • No ban on motorcycles in London in 2010
  • No Congestion zone enlargement in 2010

I'm ridiculously confident about predictions for 2020 as well.

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