James_K comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: James_K 03 January 2010 01:03:20AM 2 points [-]

That works for me, with one little change. The end of his term needs to be counted as the end of a presidential election he doesn't win, rather than the inauguration of his successor. This is because the reason I don't think its very likely is that the political effects on him would be dire, so if he does it as a lame duck president he has nothing to lose. I'm still willing to take the risk on his second term since even a second-term president is subject to some political forces.

And as a clarification, I take "means testing" to mean increasing or decreasing social security payouts based on a person's assets or income. It also has to apply to US citizens to count.

And since I'm not an American, I'd just like to confirm that the best is in US dollars. That works for me, and I assume it works for you too.

Comment author: James_Miller 03 January 2010 05:45:49PM 4 points [-]

OK, I accept - and yes the bet should be in U.S. dollars.

Please contact me at

EconomicProf@Yahoo.com so we can exchange addresses.