Next Year

• Holiday retail sales will be below consensus forecasts leading to some market turmoil in the early part of the year as the 'recovery' starts to look shaky (70%).
• A developed country will suffer a currency crisis - most likely either the UK, US or one of the weaker Eurozone economies (60%).
• A new round of bank failures and financial turmoil as the wave of Option ARM mortgage resets starts to hit and commercial real estate collapses including at least one major bank failure (a 'too big to fail' bank) (75%).
• A major terrorist attack in the US (50%) most likely with a connection to Pakistan. The response will be disproportionate to the magnitude of the attack (99%).
• Apple will launch a tablet and will aim to do for print media what it has done for music (80%).
• Democrats will lose seats in Congress and the Senate in the elections but Republicans will not gain control of either house (70%).
• One or more developed countries will see significant civil unrest due to ongoing problems with the economy (50%).

Next Decade

• US will undergo a severe currency crisis (more likely) or sovereign default (less likely) (75%).
• Developed countries' welfare states will begin to collapse (state retirement and unemployment benefits and health care will be severely curtailed or eliminated in more than one developed country) (75%).
• UK will undergo a severe currency crisis or sovereign default (90%).
• One or more countries will drop out of the Euro or the entire system will collapse (75%).
• A US state will secede (30%).