Next Year

• Holiday retail sales will be below consensus forecasts leading to some market turmoil in the early part of the year as the 'recovery' starts to look shaky (70%).

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall After Bigger Gain

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December following a gain the prior month that was larger than previously estimated, signaling a consumer recovery will be uneven.

The 0.3 percent decrease came after a 1.8 percent jump the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The government last month calculated the November gain at 1.3 percent.

...

Retail sales were projected to rise 0.5 percent after an originally reported 1.3 percent gain in November, according to the median estimate of 80 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from no change to a gain of 1.2 percent.

I'm inclined to call this a confirmation of the first part of my prediction but in retrospect I could have been more specific as to what would constitute confirmation. As to the resulting market turmoil that constitutes the second half of my prediction, I'd say that's unconfirmed as yet and is also rather unspecific. I'm actually now betting real money on market turmoil by buying VXX which is a bet on increased volatility so I still stand by the second half of the prediction.

I'm going to attempt to continue posting updates on the state of my 1 year predictions as relevant news develops. This prediction exercise is only useful if outcomes are tracked.