mattnewport comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: mattnewport 31 December 2009 01:21:29PM 6 points [-]

Next Year

  • Holiday retail sales will be below consensus forecasts leading to some market turmoil in the early part of the year as the 'recovery' starts to look shaky (70%).
  • A developed country will suffer a currency crisis - most likely either the UK, US or one of the weaker Eurozone economies (60%).
  • A new round of bank failures and financial turmoil as the wave of Option ARM mortgage resets starts to hit and commercial real estate collapses including at least one major bank failure (a 'too big to fail' bank) (75%).
  • A major terrorist attack in the US (50%) most likely with a connection to Pakistan. The response will be disproportionate to the magnitude of the attack (99%).
  • Apple will launch a tablet and will aim to do for print media what it has done for music (80%).
  • Democrats will lose seats in Congress and the Senate in the elections but Republicans will not gain control of either house (70%).
  • One or more developed countries will see significant civil unrest due to ongoing problems with the economy (50%).

Next Decade

  • US will undergo a severe currency crisis (more likely) or sovereign default (less likely) (75%).
  • Developed countries' welfare states will begin to collapse (state retirement and unemployment benefits and health care will be severely curtailed or eliminated in more than one developed country) (75%).
  • UK will undergo a severe currency crisis or sovereign default (90%).
  • One or more countries will drop out of the Euro or the entire system will collapse (75%).
  • A US state will secede (30%).
Comment author: mattnewport 14 January 2010 05:03:15PM *  0 points [-]

Next Year

  • Holiday retail sales will be below consensus forecasts leading to some market turmoil in the early part of the year as the 'recovery' starts to look shaky (70%).

U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall After Bigger Gain

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December following a gain the prior month that was larger than previously estimated, signaling a consumer recovery will be uneven.

The 0.3 percent decrease came after a 1.8 percent jump the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The government last month calculated the November gain at 1.3 percent.

...

Retail sales were projected to rise 0.5 percent after an originally reported 1.3 percent gain in November, according to the median estimate of 80 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey. Forecasts ranged from no change to a gain of 1.2 percent.

I'm inclined to call this a confirmation of the first part of my prediction but in retrospect I could have been more specific as to what would constitute confirmation. As to the resulting market turmoil that constitutes the second half of my prediction, I'd say that's unconfirmed as yet and is also rather unspecific. I'm actually now betting real money on market turmoil by buying VXX which is a bet on increased volatility so I still stand by the second half of the prediction.

I'm going to attempt to continue posting updates on the state of my 1 year predictions as relevant news develops. This prediction exercise is only useful if outcomes are tracked.

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