I am 99% confident that AGI comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1670
I am 75% confident that within ten years, the Bayesian paradigm of AGI will be just yet another more or less useful spinoff of the otherwise failed attempt to build AGI.
I don't know how one would judge this and so haven't made a prediction for this one.
Thanks for putting that up. I hadn't been aware of PredictionBook, so I've just made an account and posted a more precise prediction there myself.
I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.