gwern comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: RichardKennaway 31 December 2009 12:24:24AM 3 points [-]

I am 99% confident that AGI comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.

I am 75% confident that within ten years, the Bayesian paradigm of AGI will be just yet another more or less useful spinoff of the otherwise failed attempt to build AGI.

Comment author: gwern 18 August 2010 10:05:32AM 1 point [-]

I am 99% confident that AGI comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.

http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1670

I am 75% confident that within ten years, the Bayesian paradigm of AGI will be just yet another more or less useful spinoff of the otherwise failed attempt to build AGI.

I don't know how one would judge this and so haven't made a prediction for this one.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 18 August 2010 01:25:21PM 1 point [-]

Thanks for putting that up. I hadn't been aware of PredictionBook, so I've just made an account and posted a more precise prediction there myself.

Comment author: gwern 19 August 2010 04:07:18AM *  1 point [-]

Hopefully my comments and importation of predictions will lead to more PB awareness on LW.

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