New Year's Predictions Thread

MichaelVassar

I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.

http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1713 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1714
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1715
An EU-style organization - you'll have to be more specific than that. Every region has a bunch of multinational orgs like the UN. Africa has the Union of African States, Asia has ASEAN, SAARC, BIMSTEC, etc. Maybe you would prefer a prediction like 'at least 10 nations in Asia/Africa/South America will create a new common currency and switch to it'?
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1716 I agree that this one is wishful thinking on your part. :)
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1717 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1718 I agree that it's perfectly possible (surely right now) to sell a sous-vide cooker for $200; I question that there is demand enough, and really have no idea about the business environment. Cynicism tells me that there is no enormous revolution in American cuisine in the offing to the point where effectively half the middle-class has a sous-vide cooker, though. I mean come on.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/452 for his re-election

Thanks, mostly.

I think it would have been more fair to make my predictions 1. "A state will not try to secede" and "A state will not succeed at seceding".

Other than that, it's interesting to see how uncertain I am that some of my predictions are the result of my own thinking rather than emotional effects from people I've been reading.

(3) What I had in mind for an EU-style organization was dropping restrictions on trade and travel. At this point, I'm not as optimistic, but that feels more like mood than new information. I don't know w... (read more)

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