Kevin comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong
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By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected. I would take a wager on this one but doubt anyone would give me even odds.
Will anyone give me even odds if the bet is by 2015?
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1676
http://www.nasa.gov/ames/kepler/kepler-186f-the-first-earth-size-planet-in-the-habitable-zone/#.U1DouvldW_U
So by 'habitable' you meant simply in the zone?