James_Miller comments on Open Thread: January 2010 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 01 January 2010 05:02PM

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Comment author: James_Miller 01 January 2010 06:02:12PM 12 points [-]

Given that Alexander was one of the most successful conquerors in all of history, he almost certainly benefited from being extremely lucky. If he had lived longer, therefore, he would have probably experienced much regression to the mean with respect to his military success.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 January 2010 12:35:21AM 4 points [-]

Of course, once you are already the most successful conqueror alive you tend to need less luck. You can get by on the basic competence that comes from experience and the resources you now have at your disposal. (So long as you don't, for example, try to take Russia. Although even then Alexander's style would probably have worked better than Napoleon's.)