Alexandre Borovik summarizes the Bayesian error in null hypothesis rejection method, citing the classical
J. Cohen (1994). `The Earth Is Round (p < .05)'. American Psychologist 49(12):997-1003.
The fallacy of null hypothesis rejection
If a person is an American, then he is probably not a member of Congress. (TRUE, RIGHT?)
This person is a member of Congress.
Therefore, he is probably not an American.
If a person is an American, then he is probably not a member of Congress. (TRUE, RIGHT?)
This person is a member of Congress.
Therefore, he is probably not an American.
Valid reasoning. The problem lies in the failure to include all relevant knowledge (A member of Congress is very likely an American), not in the form of reasoning. The reason it looks so wrong is that we automatically add the extra premise on seeing discussion of a "member of Congress". Look at how the reasoning works in a context where there isn't such a premise:
...If a perso
And happy new year to everyone.