Peter_de_Blanc comments on Open Thread: January 2010 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 01 January 2010 05:02PM

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Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 03 January 2010 12:43:20AM 0 points [-]

If a person is an American, then he is probably not a member of Congress. (TRUE, RIGHT?) This person is a member of Congress. Therefore, he is probably not an American.

Valid reasoning.

It's not valid Bayesian reasoning, because we haven't said anything about P(member of congress | not american).

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