Comment on Open Thread: January 2010

Sat, 16 Jan 2010 00:38:24 GMT

They're almost made up, which makes any attempt at Bayesian analysis not all that meaningful... I'd welcome other tools. He gave me the 80% probability number so I felt obligated to give my own probability.

Consider the numbers to have very wide bounds, or to be more meaningful expressed in words -- he thinks there is a conspiracy, I don't think there is a conspiracy, but neither of us are absolutely confident about it.

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