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timtyler comments on Drawing Two Aces - Less Wrong
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It seems that either: argument 1 is correct or scenario 1 is not valid?
Note that in scenario 1 there is no random choosing.
In the main question, there's the possibility of holding AS - but randomly not choosing it. That never happens in scenario 1. So: it seems a bit different...
Ah, I see where I went wrong now. Thanks!