AllanCrossman comments on Drawing Two Aces - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 January 2010 10:33AM

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Comment author: AllanCrossman 03 January 2010 12:48:07PM *  0 points [-]

If the player has the SPADE:

  • 1/3 of the time, he also has the HEART.
  • 2/3 of the time he doesn't, and so must choose the SPADE.
  • 1/6 of the time he chooses the SPADE though he did have the HEART.

So 5/6 of the time he chooses the SPADE, but only 1/6 of the time does he choose the SPADE while having the HEART.

Thus, the chance of him having the HEART when he has chosen the SPADE is 1/5.