Matt_Simpson comments on Drawing Two Aces - Less Wrong
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In some detail:
edit: I haven't looked at the post in detail, but I think Morendil did basically the same thing I do here.
Let S count the number of aces of spades you draw, and H the number of aces of hearts. Select one ace randomly from your hand, with equal probability of selection each of the aces you hold. Let R = 1 if the ace of spades is selected, and 0 otherwise. By Baye's Rule we have:
P(S+H=2) = 1/6 since there are 4 choose 2 = 6 possible hands you can have, and only one has both aces in it.
P(S+H >= 1 and R=1) = P(S+H >= 1)*P(R=1|S+H >= 1) and:
P(S+H >= 1 and R=1 | S+H=2) = P(R=1 | S+H = 2) = 1/2 by the definition of R.
Putting it all together we have:
Which is to say, I'll go with argument 2.
Alternatively, argument 1 is wrong because the state of knowledge is not the same as in scenario 1.