ciphergoth comments on Drawing Two Aces - Less Wrong
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Before drawing the cards, I decided randomly whether to "prefer" hearts or spades, so that if I had both cards I would tell you about the preferred one. That gives me twelve scenarios, of which five result in the answers that I gave you, of which I hold both aces in only one. Therefore 1/5.
If your second question was instead "Are you holding the Ace of Spades?" as in Scenario 1, then I'm twice as likely to answer "Yes" in the instance that I really have both aces as I was before - ie there are now six scenarios allowed by my answers and I hold aces in two, so the probability becomes 1/3 as stated.
This is too easy - where's the catch? Is a more counterintuitive version of this on the way?