whpearson comments on Drawing Two Aces - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 January 2010 10:33AM

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Comment author: AdeleneDawner 03 January 2010 08:43:24PM *  4 points [-]

Card Probabilities

The colors of the squares in the grids show how you'd answer the question 'Is your preferred ace the ace of spades?' and whether you have 1 or 2 aces. The 'P=' notation in the corner of each grid shows what you're preferring; in the first case you always prefer the first ace drawn; the latter two are meant to be read together and assume that you're picking which ace you prefer ahead of time with a coin toss. The red and green squares to the side show how many of each response you could see in each case.

Comment author: whpearson 03 January 2010 11:03:14PM 1 point [-]

Thanks that cleared it up for me. I've been trying analyse where I went wrong. I reformulated the question in a way that I didn't notice lost information