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michaelkeenan comments on Disclosure vs. Bans: Reply to Robin Hanson - Less Wrong
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You should bet against economists about the predictive accuracy of their models. If you can do better, you'll be rich.
That's pretty much what Nassim Taleb did, and he reportedly made a killing in the recent crisis.
I'm curious, has anyone figured out the average gain made by individuals who intentionally relied on the standard predictive models? It's at least possible in principle that those individuals gained enough by using their models to justify their use.