Are you saying that a High-Status person necessarily thinks that they are high-status?
Or, that a low status person may delude themselves in a high-status position?
One of the things I was thinking was that you, Eliezer, are very much a high-status person in regards to many others in the Singularity Crowd. You may not be high-status in terms of wealth, or power, yet you are definitely a person to whom others seek to curry favor from (Just look at the crowds you draw at the events where I have seen you).
I've made it a matter of personal interest to investigate how status influences our actions and reactions, and I would say that you get a high amount of deference from others. That tends to make you a person of high-status.
Now, you may not have the raw-neurochemistry of a person who is a born leader, yet there you are, with a number of people looking to you for advice, conversation and opinion.
Michael Vassar once suggested: "Status makes people effectively stupid, as it makes it harder for them to update their public positions without feeling that they are losing face."
To the extent that status does, in fact, make people stupid, this is a rather important phenomenon for a society like ours in which practically all decisions and beliefs pass through the hands of very-high-status individuals (a high "cognitive Gini coefficient").
Does status actually make people stupid? It's hard to say because I haven't tracked many careers over time. I do have a definite and strong impression, with respect to many high-status individuals, that it would have been a lot easier to have an intelligent conversation with them, if I'd approached them before they made it big. But where does that impression come from, since I haven't actually tracked them over time? (Fundamental question of rationality: What do you think you know and how do you think you know it?) My best guess for why my brain seems to believe this: I know it's possible to have intelligent conversations with smart grad students, and I get the strong impression that high-status people used to be those grad students, but now it's much harder to have intelligent conversations with them than with smart grad students.
Hypotheses:
Did I miss anything important?
Having achieved some small degree of status in certain very limited circles, here's what I do to try to avoid the status-makes-you-stupid effect: