Wei_Dai comments on Fictional Evidence vs. Fictional Insight - Less Wrong

31 Post author: Wei_Dai 08 January 2010 01:59AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (43)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 08 January 2010 04:39:49AM 2 points [-]

Why use "prior probability" here instead of just "probability"?

Because the error (corrected by the insight) is failing to consider the hypothesis at all, rather than incorrectly thinking that it is ruled out by evidence.