ideclarecrockerrules comments on Fictional Evidence vs. Fictional Insight - Less Wrong

31 Post author: Wei_Dai 08 January 2010 01:59AM

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Comment author: ideclarecrockerrules 08 January 2010 09:03:35AM 2 points [-]

A main form of insight is a hypothesis that one hadn't previously entertained, but should be assigned a non-negligible prior probability.

I think of this as P(hypothesis H is true | H is represented in my mind) > P(H is true | H is not represented in my mind), largely because someone likely did some calculations to hypothesise H (no matter how silly H may seem, e.g. "goddidit", it's better than a random generator, with few exceptions).

So, in a way, I consider the act of insight as evidence (likelihood ratio > 1) for the insight itself (the hypothesis).

Comment author: Kazuo_Thow 11 January 2010 01:20:10AM *  1 point [-]

P(H is true | H is not represented in my mind)

How would this probability be assigned?