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Unknowns comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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As you can see from his response above, "These were slow gradual changes over time..." he is not saying that the future will be just like the past. There are plenty of ways that the future could be very different from the past, without superpowerful AI, singularities, or successful cryonics. So your reference class is incorrect.
Well taw is saying that the future will be just like the past in that the future will have slow gradual changes over time. I guess an appropriate response to that idea is Surprised by Brains.
There could also be fast sudden changes in a moment, without AI etc. So he isn't necessarily saying that, he was just pointing out that in those particular cases, those changes were slow and gradual.