AngryParsley comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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Well taw is saying that the future will be just like the past in that the future will have slow gradual changes over time. I guess an appropriate response to that idea is Surprised by Brains.
There could also be fast sudden changes in a moment, without AI etc. So he isn't necessarily saying that, he was just pointing out that in those particular cases, those changes were slow and gradual.