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Nick_Tarleton comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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Do most technical projects on poorly understood systems, that are as broadly defined as "cryonics" or "AGI", in fact never succeed no matter how much effort is put into them? I think we may be talking about different propositions here.
I was talking about the chance we will make these things before we go extinct. And they might also be in the reference class of perpetual motion machines, but that seems unlikely as we have a natural exemplar for General Intelligence.
ETA: And to narrow down what I thinking of when i said cryonics and AGI. Cryonics: reanimation from current or next 50 year freezing methods. AGI: GI runnable on standard silicon.