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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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"Very rarely, I'd say." I think with a little more effort put into actually investigating the question, we could find a better measure of how often people have made successful predictions of the future 20 years in advance or longer using this method.
Check a source of published predictions, and you'll find some nice statistics on how well entertainers selling Deep Wisdom manage to spontaneously and accidentally match reality. My guess is that it won't be often.