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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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So you're basically taking extreme version of position 3 from my list - rejecting outside view as very rarely applicable to anything. Am I right?
Works great when you're drawing from the same barrel as previous occasions. Project prediction, traffic forecasts, which way to drive to the airport... Predicting the far future from the past - you can't call that the Outside View and give it the privileges and respect of the Outside View. It's an attempt to reason by analogy, no more, no less.