= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
ciphergoth comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (150)
Economics growth and resource shortages. Many times it's seemed like we're imminently going to run out of some resource (coal in the 1890s, food scares in the 60s, global cooling, peak oil) and economic growth would grind to a halt. The details supported the view (existing coal seams were running low, etc.) but a reference class of other 20 year periods after 1800 would have suggested, correctly, that the economy would continue to grow at about 2-3%.
Alternatively, politics. Periodically it seems like one party has achieved a permanent stranglehold on power- the republican revolution, Obama a year ago, the conservatives in 1983, Labour in 1945, 1997 – but ignoring the details of the situation, and just looking at other decades, we’d’ve guessed correctly that the other party would rise again.
Recessions. While going into a recession, it always appears to be the Worst Thing Ever, and to signal the End of Capitalism; worse than 1929 for sure. Ignoring the details and looking at other recessions, we get a better, more moderate prediction.
Anyone who predicts a stranglehold on politics lasting longer than a decade is crazy. Not that it doesn't happen, but you can't possibly hope to see that far out. In 1997 I thought Labour would win a second term, but I wasn't confident of a third (which they got) and I would have been mad to predict a fourth, which they're not going to get. I don't think there were very many people saying "the Tories will never again form a government" even after the 1997 landslide.
I predict that after the 2010 elections, someone will predict that whichever party came out on top will now have a stranglehold on power. My reference class is the set of post-election predictions after every US election I've watched.