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AndyWood comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong
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These were slow gradual changes which added up over time. Now is a new world if looking from 400 years ago, but it's not that spectacularly different from even 50 years ago (if you try listing features of world now; world 50 years ago; and randomly selected time and place in human history - correlation between two will be vast). I don't deny that we'll have a lot of change in the future, and it will add up to something world changing.
Singularity is not about such slow processes; it's belief in sudden coming of the new world - as far as I can tell such beliefs were never correct.
If someone drops a nuclear bomb on a city, it causes vast, sweeping changes to that city very rapidly. If someone intentionally builds a machine that is explicitly designed to have the power and motivation to remake the world as we know it, and turns it on, then that is what it will do. So, it is a question of whether that tech is likely to be developed, not how likely it is in general for any old thing to change the world.