brian_jaress comments on Reference class of the unclassreferenceable - Less Wrong

25 Post author: taw 08 January 2010 04:13AM

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Comment author: brian_jaress 10 January 2010 07:49:13AM 3 points [-]

I don't know if those are the right reference classes for prediction, but those two beliefs definitely fall into those two categories. That should set off some warning signals.

Most people seem to have a strong need to believe in life after death and godlike beings. Anything less than ironclad disproof leads them to strong belief. If you challenge their beliefs, they'll often vigorously demonstrate that these things are not impossible and declare victory. They ignore the distinction between "not impossible" and "highly likely" even when trying to persuade a known skeptic because, for them on those issues, the distinction does not exist.

Not that I see anyone doing that here.

It's just a warning sign that the topics invite bias. Proceed with caution.