None of those inventions were big enough to change our larger reference classes: flight didn't push up trend GDP growth, nuclear weapons didn't change international relations much (a country is more powerful in proportion to its GDP, spending on military and population), the end of the cold war didn't bring world peace. Rather, the long run trends like 3% growth and a gradual reduction in violence have continued. All the previous game-changers have ended up leaving the game largely unchanged, possibly because we adapt to them (like The Lucas critique). If all these inventions haven’t changed the fundamentals, we should be doubtful FAI or uploads will either.

In short: the outside view doesn’t say that unprecedented events won’t occur, but it does deny that they’ll have a big change.

A better counter-example might be the industrial revolution, but that’s hardly one event.